The gloom spread by the failure of Durban and the Kyoto process generally to set any effective cap on carbon emissions is palpable. But what would have happened if Durban had actually delivered a binding cap on carbon emissions – one that, to be effective, would stop Chinese and Indian industrialization in its tracks?
To pose the question in this way is to answer it. China would never agree to a global enforceable cap on carbon emissions that stopped it expanding its fossil-fuelled industries, which are growing at the rate of one new 1-GW coal-fired power station per week. These power stations are the engine that drives its industrial miracle.
But as Simon Zadek puts it, there is a ‘Plan B’ which is already working as an alternative to the top-down approaches of Copenhagen and Durban. This is an approach to reducing carbon emissions that stems from green development industrial strategies being pursued by individual countries. And here China is in the vanguard. Because as fast as it builds coal-fired power stations, it is also building solar and wind-powered industries, not just by expanding markets but by building the new industries themselves.
